Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Youngstown State 38.4, Northern Iowa 21.9 at Stambaugh Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Youngstown State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.5 points and 60.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Northern Iowa is 3-2, scoring 26.4 and allowing 28.2 points per game (-1.8 per game). Youngstown State is 5-2, scoring 39.7 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+16.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Iowa by 6 and Youngstown State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Youngstown State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Youngstown State by about 14.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Iowa 22, Youngstown State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Iowa / Youngstown State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Youngstown State -18.5 → Youngstown State -20.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +810 / -1640 |
| DraftKings | Youngstown State -18.5 → Youngstown State -20.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +810 / -1640 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Youngstown State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Youngstown State -16.5 | 60.2 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Youngstown State -20.5 | 60.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Youngstown State -20 | 60.5 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Youngstown State win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Youngstown State -16.5 · market Youngstown State -20.5 · difference -4.0 pts (Youngstown State view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 60.5 · difference -0.3
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Northern Iowa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Iowa 21.9, Youngstown State 38.4 | Youngstown State 86%right winner | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Northern Iowa 18.3, Youngstown State 40.6 | Youngstown State 93%right winner | 9.3 | 1.8 |
Final: Northern Iowa 22, Youngstown State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Iowa vs Youngstown State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.3 | 36.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 6.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 6.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.1 | 193.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.8 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.1 | 160.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.4 | 261.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 1.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 48.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.6% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 9.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.83 | 2.80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.83 | 3.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Northern Iowa | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 49.5% |
| Passing success rate | 38.3% | 49.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3% | 37.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 35.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.1% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.9% | 46.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Iowa schedule · Youngstown State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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