Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 44.7, South Dakota 13.4 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Boise State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.3 points and 58 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
South Dakota is 3-0, scoring 46 and allowing 22 points per game (+24 per game). Boise State is 1-1, scoring 32.5 and allowing 27 points per game (+5.5 per game).
South Dakota plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Boise State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 9 and Boise State by 54 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boise State by about 29.2. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: South Dakota 24, Boise State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.3 points and the total by 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota / Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -24 → Boise State -28.25 | 55.75 → 61 | +1250 / -3000 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -23.5 → Boise State -28.5 | 55.5 → 61.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| Bovada | Boise State -24.5 → Boise State -28 | 56 → 60.5 | +1100 / -2800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boise State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -31.5 | 58.0 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -28.5 | 61.0 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -29 | 60.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boise State win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -31.3 · market Boise State -28.25 · difference +3.1 pts (Boise State view)
- Total
- model 58.0 · market 61 · difference -3.0
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Boise State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota 13.4, Boise State 44.7 | Boise State 98%right winner | 17.3 | 4.0 |
| New formula | South Dakota 18.1, Boise State 41.3 | Boise State 93%right winner | 9.2 | 2.5 |
Final: South Dakota 24, Boise State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota vs Boise State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Dakota | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 46.0 | 32.5#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 27.0#103 |
| Yards per play | 8.52 | 6.06#78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.84 | 8.83#138 |
| Rushing yards per game | 252.7 | 233.5#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.3 | 193.5#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.0 | 137.0#82 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.7 | 375.0#138 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 | 0.00#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.50#113 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 1.50#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33 | 1.50#75 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.12#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.15#123 |
| Success rate | 44.2% | 43.3%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9% | 41.4%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.5% | 12.1%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 16.4%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 17.3% | 15.5%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.0% | 9.9%#20 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.46#49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.33#37 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 24#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.7 | 70.5#35 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.19#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24 | +0.03#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.04#52 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.28#123 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0% | 46.9%#58 |
| Passing success rate | 51.5% | 38.3%#96 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.6% | 11.1%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7% | 29.3%#93 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.3% | 33.3%#106 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.8% | 34.5%#107 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0% | 25.0%#23 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 55.6%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 37.5%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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