2026 schedule
Boise State Broncos
2026 season so far
Boise State (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Boise State ranks 19th of 139 FBS teams overall — 17th on offense and 28th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Texas State in Week 9. We project Boise State 39, Texas State 28 — Boise State wins 77% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
#2 Oregon Ducks
1-0 · SOS #20
Loss 27-34
Week 1
Our number· model now
Oregon by 9
Total 55
DraftKings
ORE -24.5
Total 53.5
Final Oregon by 7. Boise State beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -24.75 (open Oregon -24.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +1200 / -3050 · Oregon 93% no-vig · model vs market -15.7 pts, -20 pct pts (Oregon view)
CBS Autzen Stadium - vs
Memphis Tigers
2-1 · SOS #105
Win 38-20
Week 2
Our number· model now
Boise State by 13
Total 59
DraftKings
BOIS -9.5
Total 54.5
Final Boise State by 18. Boise State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -9.25 (open Boise State -7) · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · ML +275 / -345 · Boise State 74% no-vig · model vs market +3.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Boise State view)
USA Net Albertsons Stadium - vs
South Dakota Coyotes
3-1 · SOS #36
Win 38-24
Week 3
Our number· model now
Boise State by 25
Total 57
DraftKings
BOIS -28.5
Total 61.5
Final Boise State by 14. South Dakota beat the spread. 62 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -28.25 (open Boise State -24) · O/U 61 (open 55.75) · ML +1250 / -3000 · Boise State 93% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Boise State view)
CBSSN Albertsons Stadium - at
Western Michigan Broncos
2-2 · SOS #93
Win 32-7
Week 4
Our number· model now
Boise State by 10
Total 54
DraftKings
BOIS -8.5
Total 50.5
Final Boise State by 25. Boise State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -8.5 (open Boise State -7.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 48) · ML -289 / +235 · Western Michigan 29% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -4 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
ESPN2 Waldo Stadium - vs
Utah State Aggies
1-4 · SOS #38
Win 37-18
Week 5
Our number· model now
Boise State by 22
Total 50
DraftKings
BOIS -19.5
Total 50.5
Final Boise State by 19. Utah State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -19.5 (open Boise State -20.25) · O/U 51 (open 49.75) · ML +800 / -1425 · Boise State 89% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +3 pct pts (Boise State view)
CBSSN Albertsons Stadium - at
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-2 · SOS #89
Win 38-31
Week 6
Our number· model now
Boise State by 12
Total 52
DraftKings
BOIS -8.5
Total 48.5
Final Boise State by 7. Fresno State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -9 (open Boise State -6.5) · O/U 48.5 · ML -277.5 / +227.5 · Fresno State 30% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -9 pct pts (Fresno State view)
CW Valley Children's Stadium - at
Washington State Cougars
1-7 · SOS #33
Win 31-10
Week 8
Our number· model now
Boise State by 20
Total 52
DraftKings
BOIS -14.5
Total 52.5
Final Boise State by 21. Boise State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -14.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -670 / +475 · Washington State 16% no-vig · model vs market -5.5 pts, -6 pct pts (Washington State view)
USA Net Martin Stadium - vs
Texas State Bobcats
4-3 · SOS #60
Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 39-28 · 77%
Our number
Boise State by 11
Total 67
DraftKings
BOIS -11.5
Total 64.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -11.25 · O/U 64 · ML +340 / -450 · Boise State 78% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, -1 pct pts (Boise State view)
CW Albertsons Stadium - at
Colorado State Rams
3-4 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 7, 11:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 44-23 · 92%
Our number
Boise State by 21
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Canvas Stadium - vs
Oregon State Beavers
5-2 · SOS #87
Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 35-25 · 74%
Our number
Boise State by 10
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Albertsons Stadium - vs
San Diego State Aztecs
3-5 · SOS #70
Sun, Nov 22, 2:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 41-17 · 94%
Our number
Boise State by 24
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Albertsons Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Boise State Broncos stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+13.1
18th in FBS
Adj. offense
34.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
21.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 34.4 | 37 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.6 | 39 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.39 | 40 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.31 | 117 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 242.0 | 8 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 202.9 | 92 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 115.3 | 18 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 244.3 | 115 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.14 | 2 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.86 | 76 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.57 | 32 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.86 | 12 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.19 | 20 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | 72 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 47.3% | 29 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.0% | 25 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.0% | 87 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.0% | 97 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.7% | 16 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 8.2% | 2 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.78 | 23 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.44 | 37 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 25 | 137 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 76 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.6 | 29 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.17 | 18 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.22 | 29 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.01 | 60 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | 84 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.2% | 29 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.9% | 37 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 12.0% | 8 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 39.6% | 11 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.8% | 84 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 50.0% | 18 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 29.1% | 6 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63.0% | 64 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 55.0% | 46 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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