Matchup analysis
Our model projects Boise State 39, Texas State 27 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Boise State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 65.5 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Texas State is 4-3 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 30 points per game (+7.1 per game). Boise State (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game).
Texas State's strong offense (21st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) meets Boise State's strong defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas State puts up. Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Texas State's below-average defense (97th); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas State by 11 and Boise State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boise State by about 9.8. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas State / Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -11.25 | 64 | +340 / -450 |
| FanDuel | Boise State -11.5 | 64.5 | +365 / -490 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -11.5 | 64.5 | +340 / -440 |
| BetMGM | Boise State -11.5 | 63.5 | +350 / -450 |
| theScore Bet | Boise State -11.5 | 64.5 | +340 / -450 |
| Pinnacle | Boise State -11 | 64 | +341 / -446 |
| Bovada | Boise State -11 | 64 | +335 / -450 |
| BetRivers | Boise State -11 | 63.5 | +330 / -455 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Boise State -10.5 | 63.5 | +325 / -450 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boise State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -12 | 65.5 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -11.5 | 64.0 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -11.5 | 63.8 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boise State win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference 0 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -11.9 · market Boise State -11.25 · difference +0.7 pts (Boise State view)
- Total
- model 65.5 · market 64 · difference +1.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Boise State 79%.
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Boise State than the market.
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Texas State vs Boise State: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.1#18 | 34.4#37 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0#111 | 20.6#39 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#17 | 6.39#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#77 | 6.31#117 |
| Rushing yards per game | 280.6#5 | 242.0#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6#54 | 202.9#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.4#30 | 115.3#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 286.9#136 | 244.3#115 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#64 | 0.14#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#119 | 0.86#76 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#125 | 2.57#32 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#47 | 0.86#12 |
| Stat | Texas State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#9 | +0.19#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#124 | +0.05#72 |
| Success rate | 51.1%#5 | 47.3%#29 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#115 | 37.0%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0%#23 | 12.0%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7%#89 | 13.0%#97 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#86 | 16.7%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#5 | 8.2%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#79 | 4.78#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18#104 | 3.44#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#82 | own 25#137 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#101 | own 29#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.1#5 | 69.6#29 |
| Stat | Texas State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#10 | +0.17#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#20 | +0.22#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#11 | +0.01#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#138 | +0.08#84 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.6%#12 | 48.2%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 51.8%#12 | 45.9%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8%#17 | 12.0%#8 |
| Passing-down success rate | 48.2%#1 | 39.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.8%#117 | 30.8%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.4%#7 | 50.0%#18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#61 | 29.1%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8%#87 | 63.0%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2%#118 | 55.0%#46 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas State schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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