2026 schedule
Texas State Bobcats
2026 season so far
Texas State is 4-3 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 30 points per game (+7.1 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Texas State ranks 56th of 139 FBS teams overall — 21st on offense and 97th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Boise State in Week 9. We project Texas State 27, Boise State 39 — Texas State wins 22% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 games- at
#5 Texas Longhorns
1-0 · SOS #1
Loss 7-59
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Texas by 9.7
Total 60.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas by 52. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
UTSA Roadrunners
2-0 · SOS #73
Loss 26-31
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 1.9
Total 63.3
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 5. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CW UFCU Stadium - vs
North Texas Mean Green
1-2 · SOS #84
Win 49-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 4.1
Total 57.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 14. 84 points. No book line was saved for this game.
USA Net UFCU Stadium - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
2-2 · SOS #34
Win 63-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 13.6
Total 65.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 53. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 91°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHYI)USA Net UFCU Stadium - at
San Diego State Aztecs
2-3 · SOS #69
Loss 29-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 4.2
Total 58.8
Book line
Not posted
Final San Diego State by 2. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 88°F, Wind 1 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (MVNSD)CW Snapdragon Stadium - vs
Colorado State Rams
2-4 · SOS #57
Win 66-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 12.2
Total 70.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 39. 93 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 83°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 15% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copyCBSSN UFCU Stadium - vs
Utah State Aggies
2-5 · SOS #38
Win 20-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 12.9
Total 61.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHYI)CBSSN UFCU Stadium - at
#20 Boise State Broncos
6-1 · SOS #45
Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 27-39 · 22%
Our number
Boise State by 12
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Rain showers, 52°F, Wind 5 mph W, 82% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTCW Albertsons Stadium - at
Oregon State Beavers
5-2 · SOS #86
Sun, Nov 8, 3:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 34-37 · 40%
Our number
Oregon State by 3
Total 71
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Reser Stadium - vs
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #88
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 32-26 · 66%
Our number
Texas State by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW UFCU Stadium - vs
Washington State Cougars
1-7 · SOS #33
Sat, Nov 21, 11:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 36-22 · 81%
Our number
Texas State by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net UFCU Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Texas State Bobcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+2.7
56th in FBS
Adj. offense
32.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
30.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 37.1 | 18 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.0 | 111 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.92 | 17 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.70 | 77 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 280.6 | 5 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 239.6 | 54 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 125.4 | 30 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 286.9 | 136 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 64 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 119 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | 125 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.43 | 47 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.23 | 9 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.17 | 124 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 51.1% | 5 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.6% | 115 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.0% | 23 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.7% | 89 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | 86 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 9.2% | 5 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.02 | 79 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.18 | 104 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 82 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 30 | 101 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 75.1 | 5 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.20 | 10 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.28 | 20 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.09 | 11 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.35 | 138 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 50.6% | 12 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 51.8% | 12 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 13.8% | 17 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 48.2% | 1 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 33.8% | 117 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 55.4% | 7 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.1% | 61 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 58.8% | 87 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 69.2% | 118 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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