Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 30.7, Texas State 26.6 at UFCU Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: North Texas wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 57.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Texas is 1-1, scoring 30 and allowing 29 points per game (+1 per game). Texas State is 0-2, scoring 16.5 and allowing 45 points per game (-28.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Texas's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) against Texas State's struggling defense (119th). Texas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Texas's below-average defense (98th); that mismatch is where most of Texas State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 27 and Texas State by 18 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Result: North Texas 35, Texas State 49. Texas State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Texas / Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -3 | 63.5 → 62.5 | +125 / -146 |
| Bovada | Texas State -3 | 63.5 → 62.5 | +130 / -150 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -3 | 63.5 → 62.5 | +120 / -142 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -4 | 57.3 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -3 | 62.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -2 | 62.0 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas State win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -4.1 · market Texas State -3 · difference -7.1 pts (Texas State view)
- Total
- model 57.3 · market 62.5 · difference -5.2
Model margin is 7.1 pts more toward North Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Texas 30.7, Texas State 26.6 | North Texas 61%wrong winner | 18.1 | 26.7 |
| New formula | North Texas 33.7, Texas State 36.8 | Texas State 58%right winner | 11.0 | 13.5 |
Final: North Texas 35, Texas State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Texas vs Texas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Texas | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#77 | 16.5#126 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.0#115 | 45.0#136 |
| Yards per play | 6.31#67 | 5.81#88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#95 | 6.35#114 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.0#76 | 221.0#37 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.5#56 | 200.0#94 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.0#72 | 153.0#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.5#73 | 304.0#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#64 | 2.00#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#80 | 0.50#114 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#71 | 0.50#133 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#57 | 1.00#56 |
| Stat | North Texas | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#17 | +0.14#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#102 | +0.25#132 |
| Success rate | 41.0%#97 | 46.1%#36 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2%#99 | 47.6%#129 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#17 | 12.2%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#37 | 13.5%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 8.8%#134 | 14.3%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.5%#16 | 9.6%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.62#36 | 3.00#127 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#84 | 5.13#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#77 | own 25#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 36#136 | own 35#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#64 | 72.5#24 |
| Stat | North Texas | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#50 | +0.17#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.32#19 | +0.10#68 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#22 | +0.01#82 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.38#132 | +0.44#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.5%#114 | 44.6%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#62 | 48.0%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6%#82 | 11.8%#19 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2%#46 | 58.3%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#79 | 38.6%#125 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.4%#53 | 58.6%#15 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0%#126 | 46.7%#116 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#82 | 50.0%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#45 | 80.0%#122 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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