Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas 35, Texas State 25.3 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Texas wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 60.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Texas State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Texas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Texas's elite defense (6th) should limit Texas State's strong offense (21st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texas's elite offense (11th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.9 points against an average defense) against Texas State's below-average defense (97th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas State by 13 and Texas by 32 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 7.6. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Texas State 7, Texas 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 42.3 points and the total by 5.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas State / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -30.5 → Texas -29.5 | 59.5 → 60.75 | +2500 / -9500 |
| DraftKings | Texas -30.5 → Texas -29.5 | 61.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
| Bovada | Texas -30.5 → Texas -29.5 | 59.5 → 60 | +2500 / -10000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -9.5 | 60.3 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Texas -29.5 | 60.8 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Texas -26.5 | 60.7 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference -23 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -9.7 · market Texas -29.5 · difference -19.8 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 60.3 · market 60.75 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 19.8 pts more toward Texas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas State 25.3, Texas 35.0 | Texas 74%right winner | 42.3 | 5.7 |
| New formula | Texas State 15.9, Texas 45.0 | Texas 95%right winner | 22.9 | 5.1 |
Final: Texas State 7, Texas 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas State vs Texas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.5#12 | 30.5#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.0#95 | 20.3#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.75#18 | 6.10#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.83#71 | 5.17#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 234.8#9 | 141.3#106 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.7#32 | 247.4#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.0#102 | 124.9#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.2#95 | 225.9#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#106 | 0.69#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#93 | 1.54#15 |
| Sacks per game | 1.85#81 | 3.00#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.15#93 | 1.77#69 |
| Stat | Texas State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#20 | +0.04#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#67 | -0.07#26 |
| Success rate | 46.4%#23 | 41.0%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#60 | 38.7%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#32 | 14.0%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#106 | 11.1%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#28 | 13.9%#31 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#21 | 13.1%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.32#32 | 3.91#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.33#114 | 3.75#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#106 | own 33#14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#122 | own 27#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.3#7 | 63.7#101 |
| Stat | Texas State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#13 | +0.01#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#37 | +0.07#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#29 | -0.09#20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#91 | -0.06#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#51 | 42.9%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 45.7%#24 | 39.2%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#43 | 21.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.4%#9 | 32.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8%#110 | 27.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2%#30 | 39.8%#83 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#93 | 36.0%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.3%#60 | 62.8%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#110 | 63.9%#95 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas State schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 1 projections
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