Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oregon State 37, Texas State 34 at Reser Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Oregon State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 71.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Texas State is 4-3 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 30 points per game (+7.1 per game). Oregon State is 5-2 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 42.7 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+19.6 per game).
Texas State's strong offense (21st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th); that mismatch is where most of Texas State's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Oregon State's strong offense (34th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) against Texas State's below-average defense (97th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas State by 19 and Oregon State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon State by about 1.6. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texas State vs Oregon State: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.1#18 | 42.7#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0#111 | 23.1#62 |
| Yards per play | 6.92#17 | 7.35#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#77 | 5.32#51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 280.6#5 | 156.1#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6#54 | 381.4#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.4#30 | 159.6#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 286.9#136 | 200.4#55 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#64 | 0.43#20 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#119 | 1.14#37 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#125 | 2.57#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.43#47 | 1.29#36 |
| Stat | Texas State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#9 | +0.23#12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#124 | +0.08#87 |
| Success rate | 51.1%#5 | 49.0%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#115 | 39.7%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0%#23 | 15.3%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7%#89 | 10.2%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#86 | 13.4%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#5 | 10.3%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#79 | 4.82#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18#104 | 3.78#64 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#82 | own 28#100 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#101 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.1#5 | 73.1#7 |
| Stat | Texas State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#10 | +0.11#50 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#20 | +0.30#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#11 | +0.09#99 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#138 | +0.07#81 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.6%#12 | 55.0%#1 |
| Passing success rate | 51.8%#12 | 48.3%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8%#17 | 13.9%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 48.2%#1 | 35.6%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.8%#117 | 28.8%#60 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.4%#7 | 48.3%#21 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#61 | 38.4%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8%#87 | 75.9%#9 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2%#118 | 48.6%#30 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas State schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.