Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas State 31.5, San Diego State 27.3 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Texas State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Texas State is 2-2, scoring 36.3 and allowing 33.8 points per game (+2.5 per game). San Diego State is 1-3, scoring 23 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-5.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texas State's strong offense (20th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th). San Diego State's below-average offense (103rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) meets Texas State's below-average defense (115th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San Diego State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas State by 27 and San Diego State by 18 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31. San Diego State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas State / San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -4.25 → Texas State -9.75 | 59.5 → 57.5 | -277.5 / +225 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -4.5 → Texas State -10 | 60.5 → 57.5 | -375 / +295 |
| Bovada | Texas State -4 → Texas State -9.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | -180 / +155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas State -4 | 58.8 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -9.5 | 57.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -9 | 57.8 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego State win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Texas State -4.2 · market Texas State -9.75 · difference +5.6 pts (San Diego State view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 57.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 5.6 pts more toward San Diego State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas State 31.5, San Diego State 27.3 | Texas State 61%wrong winner | 6.2 | 1.2 |
| New formula | Texas State 33.2, San Diego State 28.1 | Texas State 63%wrong winner | 7.1 | 1.2 |
Final: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas State vs San Diego State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.3#41 | 23.0#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8#128 | 28.8#109 |
| Yards per play | 7.60#9 | 5.13#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00#95 | 5.68#80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 280.8#6 | 161.0#87 |
| Net passing yards per game | 257.3#45 | 172.3#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.0#48 | 178.3#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 348.8#138 | 230.8#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#87 | 1.25#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#69 | 0.50#113 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25#115 | 1.50#98 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#22 | 2.00#93 |
| Stat | Texas State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.35#2 | -0.13#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.24#133 | +0.05#74 |
| Success rate | 50.7%#14 | 32.1%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5%#131 | 44.9%#113 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#21 | 9.0%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#89 | 9.9%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 15.2%#52 | 9.5%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.4%#6 | 16.0%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56#111 | 4.05#80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.52#117 | 3.61#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#46 | own 29#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#82 | own 34#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.8#25 | 65.0#73 |
| Stat | Texas State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#11 | -0.01#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.55#3 | -0.28#137 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#27 | -0.01#52 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.42#135 | +0.12#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#41 | 34.7%#127 |
| Passing success rate | 54.9%#12 | 28.7%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#30 | 20.3%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 54.5%#2 | 25.0%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.5%#119 | 29.2%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 63.0%#4 | 33.3%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.0%#126 | 40.0%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.9%#92 | 66.7%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.4%#106 | 58.8%#76 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas State schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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