Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas State 39.7, Incarnate Word 26.1 at UFCU Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Texas State wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.6 points and 65.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Incarnate Word is 2-1, scoring 44.7 and allowing 25 points per game (+19.7 per game). Texas State is 1-2, scoring 27.3 and allowing 41.7 points per game (-14.4 per game).
Incarnate Word plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Texas State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 9 and Texas State by 36 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas State by about 11.5. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Incarnate Word 10, Texas State 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 39.4 points and the total by 7.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Incarnate Word / Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -30 → Texas State -30.5 | 64.25 → 66.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -29.5 → Texas State -30.5 | 63.5 → 66.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| Bovada | Texas State -30.5 | 65 → 66.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas State -13.5 | 65.7 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -30.5 | 66.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -28 | 66.0 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas State win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Texas State -13.6 · market Texas State -30.5 · difference -16.9 pts (Texas State view)
- Total
- model 65.7 · market 66.5 · difference -0.8
Model margin is 16.9 pts more toward Incarnate Word than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Incarnate Word 26.1, Texas State 39.7 | Texas State 81%right winner | 39.4 | 7.3 |
| New formula | Incarnate Word 25.4, Texas State 38.8 | Texas State 81%right winner | 39.6 | 8.8 |
Final: Incarnate Word 10, Texas State 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Incarnate Word vs Texas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.7 | 27.3#93 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 41.7#134 |
| Yards per play | 7.22 | 6.92#38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.59 | 6.72#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 206.3 | 259.7#15 |
| Net passing yards per game | 337.7 | 238.7#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 100.7 | 136.3#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0 | 374.7#138 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.33#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33 | 0.67#107 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 0.33#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 0.67#26 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.27#10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.27#135 |
| Success rate | 44.8% | 51.1%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.7% | 49.5%#133 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2% | 15.1%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0% | 13.3%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 17.2% | 12.9%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7% | 8.1%#6 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.58#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.87#125 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#77 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.3 | 72.0#22 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.20#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.38#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.05#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.48#136 |
| Rushing success rate | 56.4% | 50.0%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 43.5% | 52.8%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 13.4%#26 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.4% | 54.8%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 40.8%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 59.0%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.1% | 53.3%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.1%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 76.5%#118 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Incarnate Word schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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