2026 schedule
Incarnate Word Cardinals
2026 season so far
Incarnate Word is 4-4 against the 25th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.5 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+7.2 per game).
Incarnate Word plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Northwestern State in Week 9. We project Incarnate Word 50, Northwestern State 11 — Incarnate Word wins 99% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Oklahoma Panhandle Aggies
No record · SOS #10
Win 76-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Incarnate Word by 9.7
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Incarnate Word by 62. 90 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium - at
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
2-1 · SOS #15
Loss 28-38
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 1.9
Total 55.9
DraftKings
NAU -4.5
Total 54.5
Final Northern Arizona by 10. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -4.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +148 / -186 · Northern Arizona 62% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -7 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - vs
Houston Christian Huskies
2-2 · SOS #39
Win 30-23
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Houston Christian by 1.6
Total 61
DraftKings
UIW -14
Total 50.5
Final Incarnate Word by 7. Houston Christian beat the spread. 53 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Incarnate Word -14 · O/U 50.5 · ML +450 / -680 · Incarnate Word 83% no-vig · model vs market -15.6 pts, -37 pct pts (Incarnate Word view)
ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
Texas State Bobcats
2-2 · SOS #53
Loss 10-63
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 13.6
Total 65.8
DraftKings
TXST -30.5
Total 66.5
Final Texas State by 53. Texas State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas State -30.5 (open Texas State -30) · O/U 66.5 (open 64.25) · ML +1400 / -3200 · Texas State 94% no-vig · model vs market -16.9 pts, -12 pct pts (Texas State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 91°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHYI)USA Net UFCU StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
6-0 · SOS #127
Loss 26-28
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 21.7
Total 58.7
DraftKings
SFA -18.5
Total 55.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 2. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 54 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -18.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -17.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +700 / -1300 · Stephen F. Austin 88% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 79°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOCH)ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - at
Lamar Cardinals
5-1 · SOS #63
Loss 35-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.3
DraftKings
LAM -7
Total 49.5
Final Lamar by 3. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 73 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -7 (open Lamar -6.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML +209 / -269 · Lamar 69% no-vig · model vs market -7.3 pts, -20 pct pts (Lamar view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 8 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBPT)ESPN+ Provost Umphrey StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
3-4 · SOS #70
Win 41-16
Week 7
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 54
DraftKings
UIW -3.5
Total 54.5
Final Incarnate Word by 25. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 57 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Incarnate Word -3.5 (open Incarnate Word -3) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML +139 / -175 · Incarnate Word 60% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -9 pct pts (Incarnate Word view)
Game-time weather: 61°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAT)ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
McNeese Cowboys
3-5 · SOS #23
Win 38-6
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Incarnate Word by 11
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Incarnate Word by 32. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 79°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAT)ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Northwestern State Demons
0-8 · SOS #69
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 50-11 · 99%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 39
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 78°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
SE Louisiana Lions
4-4 · SOS #24
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 31-26 · 64%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 5
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - vs
Nicholls Colonels
3-5 · SOS #42
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 43-13 · 98%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 30
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
East Texas A&M Lions
2-6 · SOS #48
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 36-21 · 83%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)
Times shown in your local time
Incarnate Word Cardinals stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.9
Adj. offense
22.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 35.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.35 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.76 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 171.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 304.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 166.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 220.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.03 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.0% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 36.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.43 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 74.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 49.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 38.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 43.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 53.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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