Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stephen F. Austin 40.2, Incarnate Word 18.5 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.7 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Incarnate Word is 2-2, scoring 36 and allowing 34.5 points per game (+1.5 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 5-0, scoring 40.4 and allowing 13 points per game (+27.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 1 and Stephen F. Austin by 44 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 19.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Incarnate Word 26, Stephen F. Austin 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.7 points and the total by 4.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Incarnate Word / Stephen F. Austin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stephen F. Austin -17.5 → Stephen F. Austin -18.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +700 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | Stephen F. Austin -17.5 → Stephen F. Austin -18.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +700 / -1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stephen F. Austin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stephen F. Austin -21.5 | 58.6 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Stephen F. Austin -18.5 | 55.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Stephen F. Austin -19 | 56.0 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stephen F. Austin win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Stephen F. Austin -21.7 · market Stephen F. Austin -18.5 · difference +3.2 pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 55.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Stephen F. Austin than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Incarnate Word 18.5, Stephen F. Austin 40.2 | Stephen F. Austin 92%right winner | 19.7 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Incarnate Word 17.9, Stephen F. Austin 39.6 | Stephen F. Austin 92%right winner | 19.6 | 3.5 |
Final: Incarnate Word 26, Stephen F. Austin 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Incarnate Word vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 35.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.27 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 4.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.9 | 165.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6 | 227.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.5 | 117.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.3 | 169.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.55 | 1.79 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 2.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 1.79 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 43.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 35.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 10.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.7% | 17.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62 | 3.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 40.1% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 28.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.4% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 47.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Incarnate Word schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 5 projections
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