2026 schedule
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
2026 season so far
Stephen F. Austin is 8-0 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 14.4 points per game (+27 per game).
Stephen F. Austin plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Houston Christian in Week 9. We project Stephen F. Austin 44, Houston Christian 10 — Stephen F. Austin wins 99% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
McNeese Cowboys
0-1 · SOS #26
Win 38-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 7.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
SFA -12.5
Total 49.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 11. McNeese beat the spread. 65 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -13.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -453 / +328 · McNeese 22% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +9 pct pts (McNeese view)
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium - vs
East Texas A&M Lions
0-2 · SOS #58
Win 44-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 15.1
Total 62.7
DraftKings
SFA -23.5
Total 55.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 37. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -23.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -25.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +1100 / -3300 · Stephen F. Austin 92% no-vig · model vs market -8.4 pts, -8 pct pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Abilene Christian Wildcats
0-3 · SOS #6
Win 26-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 4.3
Total 52.9
DraftKings
SFA -3
Total 50.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 19. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 33 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -3 · O/U 50.5 · ML -160 / +128 · Abilene Christian 42% no-vig · model vs market -1.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Abilene Christian view)
ESPN+ Wildcat Stadium (TX) - at
Prairie View A&M Panthers
1-3 · SOS #67
Win 31-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 4.3
Total 59.5
DraftKings
SFA -16.5
Total 52.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 21. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 41 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -16.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -17.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 50.5) · ML -1060 / +610 · Prairie View A&M 13% no-vig · model vs market +12.2 pts, +26 pct pts (Prairie View A&M view)
Panther StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Northeastern State RiverHawks
3-2 · SOS #12
Win 63-14
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 40.1
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Stephen F. Austin by 49. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 6 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOCH)ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
2-3 · SOS #34
Win 28-26
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 21.7
Total 58.7
DraftKings
SFA -18.5
Total 55.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 2. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 54 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -18.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -17.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +700 / -1300 · Stephen F. Austin 88% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 79°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOCH)ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - at
Nicholls Colonels
2-5 · SOS #72
Win 56-0
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 31.1
Total 53.5
DraftKings
SFA -22.5
Total 50.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 56. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 56 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -22.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -21.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML -2800 / +1040 · Nicholls 8% no-vig · model vs market -8.6 pts, -6 pct pts (Nicholls view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 18 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUM)ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit - vs
SE Louisiana Lions
4-4 · SOS #53
Win 45-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 22.6
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Stephen F. Austin by 21. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLFK)ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Houston Christian Huskies
4-4 · SOS #105
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 44-10 · 99%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 34
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 78°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 43% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games - at
Lamar Cardinals
6-2 · SOS #104
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 34-19 · 83%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 15
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey StadiumHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
4-4 · SOS #85
Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 33-19 · 81%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar StadiumBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Northwestern State Demons
0-8 · SOS #107
Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 55-4 · 100%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 51
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+0.8
Adj. offense
27.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
27.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 41.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 14.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.25 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.19 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 231.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 250.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 119.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 232.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.12 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.06 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 36.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 18.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.18 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.16 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.16 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 20.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 28.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 53.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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