Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stephen F. Austin 47.4, Northeastern State 7.3 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.1 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northeastern State is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 23 points per game (-6 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 4-0, scoring 34.8 and allowing 12.8 points per game (+22 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stephen F. Austin by 18 and Stephen F. Austin by 63 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 38. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northeastern State 14, Stephen F. Austin 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.9 points and the total by 22.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northeastern State 7.3, Stephen F. Austin 47.4 | Stephen F. Austin 100%right winner | 8.9 | 22.3 |
| New formula | Northeastern State 6.0, Stephen F. Austin 48.3 | Stephen F. Austin 100%right winner | 6.7 | 22.8 |
Final: Northeastern State 14, Stephen F. Austin 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northeastern State vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northeastern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0 | 35.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 49.0 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74 | 4.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 52.0 | 165.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.0 | 227.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 286.0 | 117.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.0 | 169.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.79 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 2.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 1.79 |
| Stat | Northeastern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 43.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 35.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 10.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 17.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Northeastern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 12.5% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 20.0% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 28.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 15.4% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 47.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northeastern State schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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