Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stephen F. Austin 34, Lamar 19 at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.6 points and 53.1 combined points.
Stephen F. Austin is 8-0 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 14.4 points per game (+27 per game). Lamar is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.8 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+8.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stephen F. Austin by 37 and Lamar by 8 about 80% of the time.
Lamar gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Stephen F. Austin is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Stephen F. Austin vs Lamar: stat comparison
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.4 | 30.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.4 | 22.5 |
| Yards per play | 7.25 | 6.16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19 | 5.30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 231.4 | 178.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.5 | 208.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 119.5 | 149.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.6 | 192.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 3.63 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 44.2% | 42.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 37.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 18.2% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18 | 3.85 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 62.8 |
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6% | 43.4% |
| Passing success rate | 42.1% | 43.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4% | 30.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 20.6% | 32.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.4% | 45.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.7% | 30.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4% | 51.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stephen F. Austin schedule · Lamar schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.