2026 schedule
Lamar Cardinals
2026 season so far
Lamar is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.8 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Lamar plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at UT Rio Grande Valley in Week 9. We project Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 26 — Lamar wins 41% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
0-1 · SOS #6
Win 21-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 51.1
DraftKings
ACU -7.5
Total 49.5
Final Lamar by 7. Lamar beat the spread. 35 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -303 / +232 · Lamar 29% no-vig · model vs market +7.8 pts, +22 pct pts (Lamar view)
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - at
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
1-0 · SOS #110
Loss 7-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 24.6
Total 50.2
DraftKings
UL -20.5
Total 48.5
Final Louisiana by 31. Louisiana beat the spread. 45 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana -20.25 (open Louisiana -19.25) · O/U 48.5 · ML +750 / -1300 · Louisiana 89% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +6 pct pts (Louisiana view)
ESPN+ Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium - at
Idaho Vandals
0-3 · SOS #7
Win 23-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 1.9
Total 49.7
DraftKings
IDHO -4.5
Total 51.5
Final Lamar by 6. Lamar beat the spread. 40 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -4.5 (open Idaho -1.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 49.5) · ML +139 / -175 · Idaho 60% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -5 pct pts (Idaho view)
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - at
Nicholls Colonels
2-3 · SOS #72
Win 49-18
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Lamar by 8.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
LAM -8.5
Total 45.5
Final Lamar by 31. Lamar beat the spread. 67 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -8.5 · O/U 45.5 · ML -269 / +209 · Nicholls 31% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -1 pct pts (Nicholls view)
ESPN+ John L. Guidry Stadium - vs
Northwestern State Demons
0-6 · SOS #107
Win 42-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Lamar by 32.4
Total 55.2
DraftKings
LAM -40.5
Total 54.5
Final Lamar by 28. Northwestern State beat the spread. 56 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -40.5 · O/U 54.5 · model vs market -8.1 pts (Lamar view)
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
2-4 · SOS #34
Win 38-35
Week 6
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.3
DraftKings
LAM -7
Total 49.5
Final Lamar by 3. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 73 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -7 (open Lamar -6.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML +209 / -269 · Lamar 69% no-vig · model vs market -7.3 pts, -20 pct pts (Lamar view)
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - at
SE Louisiana Lions
4-3 · SOS #53
Loss 31-34
Week 7
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 1.9
Total 49.5
DraftKings
LAM -5.5
Total 50.5
Final SE Louisiana by 3. SE Louisiana beat the spread. 65 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -5.5 (open Lamar -4.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 47.5) · ML -195 / +155 · SE Louisiana 37% no-vig · model vs market +7.4 pts, +18 pct pts (SE Louisiana view)
ESPN+ Strawberry Stadium - vs
Houston Christian Huskies
4-4 · SOS #105
Win 35-10
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Lamar by 13.2
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Lamar by 25. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - at
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
4-4 · SOS #85
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 23-26 · 41%
Our number
UT Rio Grande Valley by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium - vs
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8-0 · SOS #117
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 19-34 · 17%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 15
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - vs
East Texas A&M Lions
2-6 · SOS #58
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 33-19 · 81%
Our number
Lamar by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - at
McNeese Cowboys
3-5 · SOS #26
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 27-22 · 62%
Our number
Lamar by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Lamar Cardinals stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.9
Adj. offense
17.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 30.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.16 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.30 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 178.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 208.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 149.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 192.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.13 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.03 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.0% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.85 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.09 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 45.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 30.4% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 51.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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