Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lamar 43.8, Northwestern State 11.4 at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Lamar wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 32.4 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northwestern State is 0-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 52.2 points per game (-32.6 per game). Lamar is 3-1, scoring 25 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+3.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lamar by 10 and Lamar by 55 about 80% of the time.
Lamar gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lamar by about 30.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northwestern State 14, Lamar 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.4 points and the total by 0.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern State / Lamar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lamar -40.5 | 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Lamar -40.5 | 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lamar win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lamar -32.5 | 55.2 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Lamar -40.5 | 54.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Lamar -39.5 | 55.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lamar win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Lamar -32.4 · market Lamar -40.5 · difference -8.1 pts (Lamar view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 54.5 · difference +0.7
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Northwestern State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern State 11.4, Lamar 43.8 | Lamar 98%right winner | 4.4 | 0.8 |
| New formula | Northwestern State 10.3, Lamar 44.3 | Lamar 99%right winner | 6.0 | 1.4 |
Final: Northwestern State 14, Lamar 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern State vs Lamar: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northwestern State | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.6 | 23.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.40 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.27 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.6 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 118.6 | 160.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 254.6 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.6 | 192.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.6% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 9.7% | 13.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.96 | 3.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.3 | 60.5 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 28.4% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.6% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 52.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · Lamar schedule · all Week 5 projections
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