2026 schedule
Northwestern State Demons
2026 season so far
Northwestern State is 0-8 against the 108th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-24.8 per game).
Northwestern State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Incarnate Word in Week 9. We project Northwestern State 11, Incarnate Word 50 — Northwestern State wins 1% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Louisiana Christian Wildcats
No record · SOS #174
Loss 37-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Christian by 4.1
Total 55.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana Christian by 5. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - at
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
1-0 · SOS #102
Loss 6-80
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 41.8
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana Tech by 74. 86 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Joe Aillet Stadium - at
East Texas A&M Lions
1-2 · SOS #58
Loss 14-38
Week 2
Our number· pregame
East Texas A&M by 8.4
Total 60.2
Book line
Not posted
Final East Texas A&M by 24. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) - at
Weber State Wildcats
2-2 · SOS #69
Loss 20-49
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Weber State by 11.7
Total 70.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Weber State by 29. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - vs
SE Louisiana Lions
3-2 · SOS #54
Loss 21-52
Week 4
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 22.6
Total 60.6
Book line
Not posted
Final SE Louisiana by 31. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - at
Lamar Cardinals
4-1 · SOS #105
Loss 14-42
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Lamar by 32.4
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Lamar by 28. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - vs
McNeese Cowboys
3-4 · SOS #26
Loss 21-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
McNeese by 24.5
Total 59.1
Book line
Not posted
Final McNeese by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - vs
Nicholls Colonels
3-5 · SOS #70
Loss 27-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Nicholls by 3.7
Total 57.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Nicholls by 4. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - at
Incarnate Word Cardinals
4-4 · SOS #34
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 11-50 · 1%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 39
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium - vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
4-4 · SOS #86
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 13-42 · 3%
Our number
UT Rio Grande Valley by 29
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - vs
Houston Christian Huskies
4-4 · SOS #106
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 21-36 · 16%
Our number
Houston Christian by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Turpin Stadium - at
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8-0 · SOS #117
Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 4-56 · 0%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 52
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Homer Bryce Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Northwestern State Demons stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-48.0
Adj. offense
4.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
52.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 44.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.07 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.03 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 122.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 231.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 222.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 218.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.18 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 36.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.73 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.82 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 12 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.25 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 35.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 51.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 49.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 69.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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