Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana Tech 47.4, Northwestern State 5.6 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Louisiana Tech wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 41.8 points and 53 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northwestern State is 0-1, scoring 37 and allowing 42 points per game (-5 per game). Louisiana Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Northwestern State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Louisiana Tech's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 19 and Louisiana Tech by 64 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana Tech by about 39.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northwestern State 6, Louisiana Tech 80. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 32.2 points and the total by 33.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern State / Louisiana Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana Tech -43 → Louisiana Tech -44.5 | 54 → 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Louisiana Tech -41.5 → Louisiana Tech -44.5 | 52.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Louisiana Tech -44.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -42 | 53.0 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -44.5 | 56.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -44.5 | 56.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana Tech win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -41.8 · market Louisiana Tech -44.5 · difference -2.7 pts (Louisiana Tech view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 56.5 · difference -3.5
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Northwestern State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern State 5.6, Louisiana Tech 47.4 | Louisiana Tech 100%right winner | 32.2 | 33.0 |
| New formula | Northwestern State 3.4, Louisiana Tech 53.8 | Louisiana Tech 100%right winner | 23.6 | 28.8 |
Final: Northwestern State 6, Louisiana Tech 80. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern State vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northwestern State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 27.3#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.6 | 20.8#35 |
| Yards per play | 4.40 | 5.66#85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.27 | 5.87#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.6 | 205.8#23 |
| Net passing yards per game | 118.6 | 163.7#118 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 254.6 | 145.5#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.6 | 258.2#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.15#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.77#6 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 1.38#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 1.85#81 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.03#110 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | -0.01#53 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 40.4%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.6% | 38.8%#33 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 12.9%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 13.2%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 9.7% | 13.3%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 11.9%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.96 | 3.67#102 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 3.43#22 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | own 27#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.3 | 65.3#81 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.07#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.16#127 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24 | -0.03#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.01#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.8% | 42.1%#91 |
| Passing success rate | 28.4% | 36.4%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 26.6% | 17.8%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 27.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 30.8%#85 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8% | 41.8%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5% | 38.4%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2% | 61.8%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 47.5%#9 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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