Matchup analysis
Our model projects UT Rio Grande Valley 42, Northwestern State 13 at Turpin Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: UT Rio Grande Valley wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.7 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UT Rio Grande Valley is 4-4 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+1.8 per game). Northwestern State is 0-8 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-24.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UT Rio Grande Valley by 51 and UT Rio Grande Valley by 6 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UT Rio Grande Valley is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UT Rio Grande Valley vs Northwestern State: stat comparison
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9 | 20.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1 | 44.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.08 | 5.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41 | 7.03 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.0 | 122.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.5 | 231.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 222.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.5 | 218.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 36.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7% | 16.7% |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44 | 3.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.35 | 4.82 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.1 | 69.8 |
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 37.0% |
| Passing success rate | 40.2% | 37.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7% | 35.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 32.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.5% | 69.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Rio Grande Valley schedule · Northwestern State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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