2026 schedule
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
2026 season so far
UT Rio Grande Valley is 4-4 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+1.8 per game).
UT Rio Grande Valley plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Lamar in Week 9. We project UT Rio Grande Valley 26, Lamar 23 — UT Rio Grande Valley wins 59% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
UT Permian Basin Falcons
0-1 · SOS #25
Win 44-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 13.4
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 44. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium - at
UTSA Roadrunners
1-0 · SOS #73
Loss 16-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 29.1
Total 62.7
DraftKings
UTSA -28.5
Total 59.5
Final UTSA by 29. UTSA beat the spread. 61 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -28.5 · O/U 59.5 · ML +1800 / -8250 · UTSA 95% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +2 pct pts (UTSA view)
ESPN+ AlamodomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
Nicholls Colonels
2-1 · SOS #72
Loss 28-31
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 2.8
Total 52.8
DraftKings
RGV -5.5
Total 50.5
Final Nicholls by 3. Nicholls beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -5.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML -235 / +184 · Nicholls 33% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +9 pct pts (Nicholls view)
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
McNeese Cowboys
1-3 · SOS #26
Win 27-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 4.8
Total 55.2
DraftKings
RGV -5.5
Total 52.5
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 17. UT Rio Grande Valley beat the spread. 37 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -5.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +162 / -204 · UT Rio Grande Valley 64% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -1 pct pts (UT Rio Grande Valley view)
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium - at
East Texas A&M Lions
2-4 · SOS #58
Loss 17-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 11.8
Total 55
DraftKings
RGV -10.5
Total 50.5
Final East Texas A&M by 3. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 37 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -10.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -398 / +294 · East Texas A&M 24% no-vig · model vs market -1.3 pts, -2 pct pts (East Texas A&M view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 70°F, Wind 3 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGVT)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
SE Louisiana Lions
3-3 · SOS #53
Win 13-3
Week 6
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 7.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
SELA -3
Total 54.5
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 10. UT Rio Grande Valley beat the spread. 16 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Both totals were equally close.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -3 (open SE Louisiana -4) · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · ML -133 / +107 · UT Rio Grande Valley 46% no-vig · model vs market +10.9 pts, +24 pct pts (UT Rio Grande Valley view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind 14 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMFE)ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Incarnate Word Cardinals
3-4 · SOS #34
Loss 16-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 54
DraftKings
UIW -3.5
Total 54.5
Final Incarnate Word by 25. Incarnate Word beat the spread. 57 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Incarnate Word -3.5 (open Incarnate Word -3) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML +139 / -175 · Incarnate Word 60% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -9 pct pts (Incarnate Word view)
Game-time weather: 61°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAT)ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - at
Central Arkansas Bears
2-6 · SOS #28
Win 30-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 2.6
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 3. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLIT)ESPN+ Estes StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Lamar Cardinals
6-2 · SOS #104
Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 26-23 · 59%
Our number
UT Rio Grande Valley by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly cloudy, 85°F, Wind 8 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Northwestern State Demons
0-8 · SOS #107
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 42-13 · 97%
Our number
UT Rio Grande Valley by 29
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Turpin StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games - vs
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8-0 · SOS #117
Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 19-33 · 19%
Our number
Stephen F. Austin by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar StadiumBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Houston Christian Huskies
4-4 · SOS #105
Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-19 · 77%
Our number
UT Rio Grande Valley by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Husky Stadium (TX)Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Times shown in your local time
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.9
Adj. offense
17.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
32.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 22.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.08 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.41 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 162.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 270.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 156.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 196.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.50 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.00 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.44 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.35 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 71.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.09 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 51.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 37.5% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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