Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UT Rio Grande Valley 27.4, Central Arkansas 24.8 at Estes Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: UT Rio Grande Valley wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UT Rio Grande Valley is 3-4, scoring 23 and allowing 21.4 points per game (+1.6 per game). Central Arkansas is 2-5, scoring 24.9 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UT Rio Grande Valley by 25 and Central Arkansas by 20 about 80% of the time.
Central Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UT Rio Grande Valley is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UT Rio Grande Valley 30, Central Arkansas 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 4.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UT Rio Grande Valley 27.4, Central Arkansas 24.8 | UT Rio Grande Valley 57%right winner | 0.4 | 4.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: UT Rio Grande Valley 30, Central Arkansas 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UT Rio Grande Valley vs Central Arkansas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.6 | 24.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 35.2 |
| Yards per play | 7.50 | 6.22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99 | 6.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.9 | 199.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 249.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.4 | 202.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.6 | 256.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 1.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.45 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.00 |
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.16 | 4.46 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0 | 72.1 |
| Stat | UT Rio Grande Valley | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9% | 53.2% |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 41.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 33.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0% | 41.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 47.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 70.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UT Rio Grande Valley schedule · Central Arkansas schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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