Matchup analysis
Our model projects Incarnate Word 50, Northwestern State 11 at Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Incarnate Word wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.5 points and 60.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Northwestern State is 0-8 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-24.8 per game). Incarnate Word is 4-4 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.5 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+7.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 16 and Incarnate Word by 61 about 80% of the time.
Incarnate Word gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Incarnate Word by about 36.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northwestern State vs Incarnate Word: stat comparison
| Stat | Northwestern State | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 35.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.8 | 28.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 6.35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.03 | 5.76 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.1 | 171.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.4 | 304.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.3 | 166.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 220.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88 | 2.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.13 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 45.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 36.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 12.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 10.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 16.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 3.43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.82 | 3.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8 | 74.9 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.0% | 49.5% |
| Passing success rate | 37.3% | 44.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 16.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 26.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.5% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.6% | 33.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.4% | 43.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 53.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · Incarnate Word schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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