Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nicholls 30.5, Northwestern State 26.8 at Turpin Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Nicholls wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 57.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Nicholls is 2-5, scoring 14 and allowing 41.3 points per game (-27.3 per game). Northwestern State is 0-7, scoring 19 and allowing 46.7 points per game (-27.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nicholls by 26 and Northwestern State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Nicholls is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Nicholls 31, Northwestern State 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 0.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nicholls 30.5, Northwestern State 26.8 | Nicholls 60%right winner | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Nicholls 31, Northwestern State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nicholls vs Northwestern State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Nicholls | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 10.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 41.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 4.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 7.27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.8 | 120.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.3 | 118.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 218.6 | 254.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.3 | 213.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.42 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.19 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 33.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 49.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 8.7% | 9.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.08 | 1.96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 4.46 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 54.3 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 32.8% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 28.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 24.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 33.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 25.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.6% | 43.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.9% | 36.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 68.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nicholls schedule · Northwestern State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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