2026 schedule
Nicholls Colonels
2026 season so far
Nicholls is 3-5 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 16.1 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-23.4 per game).
Nicholls plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at McNeese in Week 9. We project Nicholls 16, McNeese 34 — Nicholls wins 13% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
0-1 · SOS #156
Win 44-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Nicholls by 13.8
Total 52.2
DraftKings
NICH -28.5
Total 51.5
Final Nicholls by 34. Nicholls beat the spread. 54 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nicholls -28.5 · O/U 51.5 · model vs market -14.7 pts (Nicholls view)
ESPN+ John L. Guidry Stadium - at
Kansas State Wildcats
1-0 · SOS #83
Loss 3-71
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 35.8
Total 52.8
DraftKings
KSU -41.5
Total 55.5
Final Kansas State by 68. Kansas State beat the spread. 74 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas State -41.25 (open Kansas State -40.5) · O/U 55.25 (open 55) · model vs market -5.5 pts (Kansas State view)
ESPN+ Bill Snyder Family StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
1-2 · SOS #85
Win 31-28
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 2.8
Total 52.8
DraftKings
RGV -5.5
Total 50.5
Final Nicholls by 3. Nicholls beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -5.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML -235 / +184 · Nicholls 33% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +9 pct pts (Nicholls view)
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-2 · SOS #118
Loss 0-59
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Sam Houston by 33.6
Total 54.2
DraftKings
SHSU -21
Total 50.5
Final Sam Houston by 59. Sam Houston beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Sam Houston -21 (open Sam Houston -17.5) · O/U 51 (open 49.25) · ML +625 / -1000 · Sam Houston 87% no-vig · model vs market +12.6 pts, +12 pct pts (Sam Houston view)
ESPN+ Elliott T. Bowers StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Lamar Cardinals
3-1 · SOS #104
Loss 18-49
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Lamar by 8.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
LAM -8.5
Total 45.5
Final Lamar by 31. Lamar beat the spread. 67 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -8.5 · O/U 45.5 · ML -269 / +209 · Nicholls 31% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -1 pct pts (Nicholls view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 84°F, Wind 3 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUM)ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - at
Houston Christian Huskies
3-3 · SOS #105
Loss 2-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Houston Christian by 11.2
Total 57.2
DraftKings
HCU -1.5
Total 53.5
Final Houston Christian by 14. Houston Christian beat the spread. 18 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Houston Christian -1.5 · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +101 / -125 · Houston Christian 53% no-vig · model vs market +9.7 pts, +24 pct pts (Houston Christian view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 82°F, Wind 10 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGR)ESPN+ Husky Stadium (TX) - vs
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
7-0 · SOS #117
Loss 0-56
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 31.1
Total 53.5
DraftKings
SFA -22.5
Total 50.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 56. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 56 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -22.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -21.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML -2800 / +1040 · Nicholls 8% no-vig · model vs market -8.6 pts, -6 pct pts (Nicholls view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 18 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUM)ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit - at
Northwestern State Demons
0-8 · SOS #107
Win 31-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Nicholls by 3.7
Total 57.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Nicholls by 4. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 85°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KIER)ESPN+ Turpin StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
McNeese Cowboys
3-5 · SOS #26
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-34 · 13%
Our number
McNeese by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 82°F, Wind 10 mph SE, 47% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Navarre StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
East Texas A&M Lions
2-6 · SOS #58
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-31 · 30%
Our number
East Texas A&M by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Incarnate Word Cardinals
4-4 · SOS #34
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 13-43 · 2%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 30
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
SE Louisiana Lions
4-4 · SOS #53
Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 18-36 · 13%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 18
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Nicholls Colonels stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-39.5
Adj. offense
6.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
46.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 16.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 39.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.73 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.57 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 148.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 173.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 199.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 251.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 0.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.17 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.06 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.96 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 20 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 18 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.27 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 35.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 30.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 40.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 31.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 48.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 25.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 76.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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