Matchup analysis
Our model projects East Texas A&M 31, Nicholls 23 at John L. Guidry Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: East Texas A&M wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 53.6 combined points.
East Texas A&M is 2-6 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.4 and allowing 30 points per game (-11.6 per game). Nicholls is 3-5 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 16.1 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-23.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Texas A&M by 31 and Nicholls by 14 about 80% of the time.
Nicholls gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. East Texas A&M is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
East Texas A&M vs Nicholls: stat comparison
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.4 | 16.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0 | 39.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.73 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59 | 6.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.0 | 148.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.5 | 173.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 199.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.6 | 251.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.63 | 1.75 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 35.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 45.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5% | 11.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.92 | 2.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 4.96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 67.9 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5% | 35.4% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 30.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 25.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 40.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 31.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.8% | 25.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.3% | 76.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Texas A&M schedule · Nicholls schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.