2026 schedule
East Texas A&M Lions
2026 season so far
East Texas A&M is 2-6 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.4 and allowing 30 points per game (-11.6 per game).
East Texas A&M plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs SE Louisiana in Week 9. We project East Texas A&M 24, SE Louisiana 31 — East Texas A&M wins 32% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Mercer Bears
1-0 · SOS #125
Loss 15-23
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 11.1
Total 67.5
DraftKings
MER -22.5
Total 57.5
Final Mercer by 8. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 38 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -22.5 (open Mercer -23.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 60.5) · ML +1100 / -3200 · Mercer 92% no-vig · model vs market -11.4 pts, -15 pct pts (Mercer view)
ESPN Five Star StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
2-0 · SOS #127
Loss 7-44
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 15.1
Total 62.7
DraftKings
SFA -23.5
Total 55.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 37. Stephen F. Austin beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -23.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -25.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +1100 / -3300 · Stephen F. Austin 92% no-vig · model vs market -8.4 pts, -8 pct pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
Northwestern State Demons
0-3 · SOS #69
Win 38-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
East Texas A&M by 8.4
Total 60.2
DraftKings
ETAM -20.5
Total 53.5
Final East Texas A&M by 24. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 52 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Texas A&M -20.5 · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +710 / -1320 · East Texas A&M 88% no-vig · model vs market -12.1 pts, -17 pct pts (East Texas A&M view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) - at
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3-0 · SOS #89
Loss 0-42
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Tulsa by 43.6
Total 44.4
DraftKings
TLSA -41.5
Total 55.5
Final Tulsa by 42. Tulsa beat the spread. 42 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulsa -41.25 (open Tulsa -42.5) · O/U 55.75 (open 57) · model vs market +2.4 pts (Tulsa view)
ESPN+ H. A. Chapman StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
McNeese Cowboys
2-3 · SOS #23
Loss 24-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
McNeese by 12.1
Total 52.1
DraftKings
MCN -6.5
Total 51.5
Final McNeese by 3. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: McNeese -6.5 (open McNeese -2.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -222 · McNeese 65% no-vig · model vs market +5.6 pts, +13 pct pts (McNeese view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLCH)ESPN+ Navarre StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
2-3 · SOS #70
Win 20-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 11.8
Total 55
DraftKings
RGV -10.5
Total 50.5
Final East Texas A&M by 3. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 37 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -10.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -398 / +294 · East Texas A&M 24% no-vig · model vs market -1.3 pts, -2 pct pts (East Texas A&M view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 70°F, Wind 3 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGVT)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Houston Christian Huskies
4-3 · SOS #39
Loss 24-43
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Houston Christian by 1
Total 52
DraftKings
HCU -3
Total 48.5
Final Houston Christian by 19. Houston Christian beat the spread. 67 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Houston Christian -3 · O/U 48.5 (open 47.5) · ML +121 / -151 · Houston Christian 57% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -5 pct pts (Houston Christian view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGR)ESPN+ Husky Stadium (TX)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
Prairie View A&M Panthers
4-5 · SOS #68
Loss 19-30
Week 8
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Prairie View A&M by 11. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 74°F, Wind 3 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSLR)ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - vs
SE Louisiana Lions
4-4 · SOS #24
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-31 · 32%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 7
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 76°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Nicholls Colonels
3-5 · SOS #42
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-23 · 70%
Our number
East Texas A&M by 8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Lamar Cardinals
6-2 · SOS #63
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 19-33 · 19%
Our number
Lamar by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Provost Umphrey Stadium - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
4-4 · SOS #25
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-36 · 17%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)
Times shown in your local time
East Texas A&M Lions stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.8
Adj. offense
13.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
41.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.73 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.59 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 158.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 230.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 176.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 181.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.50 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.63 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.01 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.92 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.75 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.8% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 36.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 46.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 61.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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