Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston Christian 26.5, East Texas A&M 25.5 at Husky Stadium (TX) in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Houston Christian wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
East Texas A&M is 2-4, scoring 17.3 and allowing 27.8 points per game (-10.5 per game). Houston Christian is 3-3, scoring 29.7 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Texas A&M by 22 and Houston Christian by 24 about 80% of the time.
Houston Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field East Texas A&M would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Texas A&M 24, Houston Christian 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18 points and the total by 15.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Texas A&M / Houston Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston Christian -3 | 47.5 → 48.5 | +121 / -151 |
| DraftKings | Houston Christian -3 | 47.5 → 48.5 | +121 / -151 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Houston Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston Christian -1 | 51.9 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Houston Christian -3 | 48.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Houston Christian -2.5 | 49.6 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Houston Christian win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Houston Christian -1 · market Houston Christian -3 · difference -2.0 pts (Houston Christian view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 48.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward East Texas A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Texas A&M 25.5, Houston Christian 26.5 | Houston Christian 53%right winner | 18.0 | 15.1 |
| New formula | East Texas A&M 26.0, Houston Christian 25.9 | Houston Christian 50%wrong winner | 19.0 | 15.1 |
Final: East Texas A&M 24, Houston Christian 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Texas A&M vs Houston Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.6 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.8 | 30.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 4.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 5.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.8 | 164.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.0 | 131.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 196.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.3 | 185.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83 | 0.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 3.45 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 42.3% | 34.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3% | 8.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.29 | 2.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04 | 3.86 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 67.4 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 39.8% | 29.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 24.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6% | 31.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 34.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.2% | 41.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.3% | 58.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Texas A&M schedule · Houston Christian schedule · all Week 7 projections
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