Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Texas A&M 34.3, Northwestern State 25.9 at Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) in Week 2. That is a solid edge: East Texas A&M wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 60.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Northwestern State is 0-2, scoring 21.5 and allowing 61 points per game (-39.5 per game). East Texas A&M is 0-2, scoring 11 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-22.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern State by 14 and East Texas A&M by 31 about 80% of the time.
East Texas A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Texas A&M by about 6.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northwestern State 14, East Texas A&M 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.6 points and the total by 8.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern State / East Texas A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Texas A&M -20.5 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +710 / -1320 |
| DraftKings | East Texas A&M -20.5 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +710 / -1320 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Texas A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Texas A&M -8.5 | 60.2 | 71% |
| Market consensus | East Texas A&M -20.5 | 53.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | East Texas A&M -18.5 | 54.4 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Texas A&M win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -17 pts
- Margin
- model East Texas A&M -8.4 · market East Texas A&M -20.5 · difference -12.1 pts (East Texas A&M view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 53.5 · difference +6.7
Model margin is 12.1 pts more toward Northwestern State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern State 25.9, East Texas A&M 34.3 | East Texas A&M 71%right winner | 15.6 | 8.2 |
| New formula | Northwestern State 16.5, East Texas A&M 46.2 | East Texas A&M 97%right winner | 5.7 | 10.7 |
Final: Northwestern State 14, East Texas A&M 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern State vs East Texas A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northwestern State | East Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 25.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.6 | 39.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.40 | 5.89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.27 | 6.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.6 | 136.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 118.6 | 269.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 254.6 | 193.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.6 | 246.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 1.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | East Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 42.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.6% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 13.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 9.7% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 14.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.96 | 3.29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 4.04 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.3 | 68.9 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | East Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.8% | 43.8% |
| Passing success rate | 28.4% | 39.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.6% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 30.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 33.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8% | 39.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2% | 42.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 48.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · East Texas A&M schedule · all Week 2 projections
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