Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stephen F. Austin 38.9, East Texas A&M 23.8 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 62.6 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
East Texas A&M is 0-1, scoring 15 and allowing 23 points per game (-8 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 27 points per game (+11 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Texas A&M by 7 and Stephen F. Austin by 38 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 13. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Texas A&M 7, Stephen F. Austin 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.9 points and the total by 11.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Texas A&M / Stephen F. Austin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stephen F. Austin -25.5 → Stephen F. Austin -23.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +1100 / -3300 |
| DraftKings | Stephen F. Austin -25.5 → Stephen F. Austin -23.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +1100 / -3300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stephen F. Austin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stephen F. Austin -15 | 62.6 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Stephen F. Austin -23.5 | 55.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Stephen F. Austin -22.5 | 56.3 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stephen F. Austin win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Stephen F. Austin -15.1 · market Stephen F. Austin -23.5 · difference -8.4 pts (Stephen F. Austin view)
- Total
- model 62.6 · market 55.5 · difference +7.1
Model margin is 8.4 pts more toward East Texas A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Texas A&M 23.8, Stephen F. Austin 38.9 | Stephen F. Austin 84%right winner | 21.9 | 11.6 |
| New formula | East Texas A&M 17.3, Stephen F. Austin 43.0 | Stephen F. Austin 94%right winner | 11.3 | 9.3 |
Final: East Texas A&M 7, Stephen F. Austin 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Texas A&M vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.6 | 35.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.8 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 4.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.8 | 165.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.0 | 227.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 117.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.3 | 169.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.79 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83 | 2.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 1.79 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 42.3% | 43.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 35.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 17.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.29 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04 | 3.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 67.5 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 39.8% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.3% | 47.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Texas A&M schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 1 projections
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