Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulsa 44, East Texas A&M 0.4 at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Tulsa wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 43.5 points and 44.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
East Texas A&M is 1-2, scoring 20 and allowing 27 points per game (-7 per game). Tulsa is 2-0, scoring 23.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+10 per game).
East Texas A&M plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Tulsa's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 21 and Tulsa by 66 about 80% of the time.
Tulsa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulsa by about 41.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Texas A&M 0, Tulsa 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 2.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Texas A&M / Tulsa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulsa -42.5 → Tulsa -41.25 | 57 → 55.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Tulsa -42.5 → Tulsa -41.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Tulsa -42.5 → Tulsa -41 | 57.5 → 56 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulsa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulsa -43.5 | 44.4 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Tulsa -41.5 | 55.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Tulsa -42 | 55.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulsa win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Tulsa -43.5 · market Tulsa -41.25 · difference +2.3 pts (Tulsa view)
- Total
- model 44.4 · market 55.75 · difference -11.4
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Tulsa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Texas A&M 0.4, Tulsa 44.0 | Tulsa 100%right winner | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| New formula | East Texas A&M 16.8, Tulsa 37.0 | Tulsa 90%right winner | 21.8 | 11.8 |
Final: East Texas A&M 0, Tulsa 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Texas A&M vs Tulsa: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 23.5#103 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 13.5#36 |
| Yards per play | 6.56 | 5.60#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.10 | 5.04#57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.7 | 199.5#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.7 | 164.5#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 177.0 | 117.0#56 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.7 | 256.0#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.33 | 0.50#39 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.50#27 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 3.00#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.03#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13 | -0.07#31 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 37.3%#118 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8% | 40.0%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0% | 9.3%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1% | 9.6%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 11.4%#115 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 16.6%#123 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.02#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 2.85#14 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 32#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 22#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.7 | 65.0#78 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.30 | +0.16#28 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.11#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.11#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20 | -0.04#44 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0% | 37.7%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 32.8%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1% | 17.6%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 18.4%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 34.7%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 17.9%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0% | 34.5%#54 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 45.0%#122 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 35.1%#17 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Texas A&M schedule · Tulsa schedule · all Week 3 projections
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