Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mercer 39.3, East Texas A&M 28.2 at Five Star Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Mercer wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.1 points and 67.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
East Texas A&M has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Mercer has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Texas A&M by 11 and Mercer by 34 about 80% of the time.
Mercer gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercer by about 9. The game is on ESPN.
Result: East Texas A&M 15, Mercer 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 29.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Texas A&M / Mercer) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Mercer -23.5 → Mercer -22.5 | 60.5 → 57.5 | +1100 / -3200 |
| DraftKings | Mercer -23.5 → Mercer -22.5 | 60.5 → 57.5 | +1100 / -3200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mercer win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mercer -11 | 67.4 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Mercer -22.5 | 57.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Mercer -21 | 58.3 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mercer win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -15 pts
- Margin
- model Mercer -11.1 · market Mercer -22.5 · difference -11.4 pts (Mercer view)
- Total
- model 67.4 · market 57.5 · difference +9.9
Model margin is 11.4 pts more toward East Texas A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Texas A&M 28.2, Mercer 39.3 | Mercer 77%right winner | 3.1 | 29.4 |
| New formula | East Texas A&M 21.2, Mercer 41.0 | Mercer 88%right winner | 11.8 | 24.2 |
Final: East Texas A&M 15, Mercer 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Texas A&M vs Mercer: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.6 | 36.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.8 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.89 | 7.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 5.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.8 | 171.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.0 | 353.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 134.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.3 | 232.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 0.42 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 42.3% | 44.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 35.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3% | 15.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 15.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 11.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.29 | 3.31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04 | 3.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9 | 71.8 |
| Stat | East Texas A&M | Mercer |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 40.2% |
| Passing success rate | 39.8% | 50.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 33.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 29.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6% | 51.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 35.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.2% | 62.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.3% | 61.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Texas A&M schedule · Mercer schedule · all Week 1 projections
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