Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nicholls 33, Mississippi Valley State 19.2 at John L. Guidry Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Nicholls wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.8 points and 52.1 combined points.
Mississippi Valley State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Nicholls has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi Valley State by 9 and Nicholls by 36 about 80% of the time.
Nicholls gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nicholls by about 11.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mississippi Valley State 10, Nicholls 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.2 points and the total by 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi Valley State / Nicholls) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nicholls -28.5 | 51.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Nicholls -28.5 | 51.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nicholls win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nicholls -14 | 52.1 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Nicholls -28.5 | 51.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | Nicholls -26 | 52.2 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nicholls win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Nicholls -13.8 · market Nicholls -28.5 · difference -14.7 pts (Nicholls view)
- Total
- model 52.1 · market 51.5 · difference +0.6
Model margin is 14.7 pts more toward Mississippi Valley State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi Valley State 19.2, Nicholls 33.0 | Nicholls 82%right winner | 20.2 | 1.9 |
| New formula | Mississippi Valley State 15.5, Nicholls 37.7 | Nicholls 90%right winner | 11.8 | 0.8 |
Final: Mississippi Valley State 10, Nicholls 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi Valley State vs Nicholls: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.7 | 24.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46 | 5.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.5 | 164.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.4 | 179.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.9 | 218.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.4 | 178.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.70 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.42 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.21 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 38.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.7% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 8.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.1% | 11.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.31 | 3.08 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.61 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 64.0 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.2% | 37.8% |
| Passing success rate | 32.7% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.2% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.5% | 30.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.4% | 36.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 48.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 45.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 58.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Nicholls schedule · all Week 1 projections
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