Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 44.3, Nicholls 8.5 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Kansas State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.9 points and 52.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Nicholls is 1-0, scoring 44 and allowing 10 points per game (+34 per game). Kansas State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Nicholls plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Kansas State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas State by 13 and Kansas State by 58 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas State by about 33.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Nicholls 3, Kansas State 71. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 32.1 points and the total by 21.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nicholls / Kansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -40.5 → Kansas State -41.25 | 55 → 55.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -40.5 → Kansas State -41.5 | 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Kansas State -40.5 → Kansas State -41 | 54.5 → 55 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -36 | 52.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -41.5 | 55.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -40.5 | 55.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Kansas State -35.9 · market Kansas State -41.25 · difference -5.4 pts (Kansas State view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 55.25 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Nicholls than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nicholls 8.5, Kansas State 44.3 | Kansas State 99%right winner | 32.1 | 21.2 |
| New formula | Nicholls 7.3, Kansas State 47.1 | Kansas State 99%right winner | 28.2 | 19.6 |
Final: Nicholls 3, Kansas State 71. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nicholls vs Kansas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Nicholls | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 29.4#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 26.7#79 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 6.14#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 5.52#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.8 | 180.8#52 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.3 | 202.6#95 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 218.6 | 182.8#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.3 | 215.1#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 0.92#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 1.58#13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 2.42#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.42 | 1.08#12 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.05#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.01#68 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 40.6%#97 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 39.4%#41 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 13.2%#46 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 12.6%#77 |
| Havoc rate | 8.7% | 12.7%#62 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1% | 13.6%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.08 | 4.29#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 3.79#61 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | own 30#50 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 30#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 62.4#117 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.08#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.03#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.04#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | -0.04#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 40.5%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 40.6%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 22.7%#128 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 30.2%#74 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 28.4%#51 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 38.2%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.6% | 40.3%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.9% | 68.6%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 61.4%#77 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nicholls schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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