Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lamar 27.9, Nicholls 19.8 at John L. Guidry Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Lamar wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 47.7 combined points.
Lamar is 2-1, scoring 17 and allowing 23 points per game (-6 per game). Nicholls is 2-2, scoring 19.5 and allowing 42 points per game (-22.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lamar by 31 and Nicholls by 14 about 80% of the time.
Nicholls gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lamar is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lamar 49, Nicholls 18. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.9 points and the total by 19.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lamar / Nicholls) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lamar -8.5 | 45.5 | -269 / +209 |
| DraftKings | Lamar -8.5 | 45.5 | -269 / +209 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nicholls win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lamar -8 | 47.7 | 30% |
| Market consensus | Lamar -8.5 | 45.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Lamar -8.5 | 46.8 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nicholls win probability
- model 30% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Lamar -8.1 · market Lamar -8.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Nicholls view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 45.5 · difference +2.2
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lamar 27.9, Nicholls 19.8 | Lamar 70%right winner | 22.9 | 19.3 |
| New formula | Lamar 29.6, Nicholls 18.6 | Lamar 77%right winner | 20.0 | 18.9 |
Final: Lamar 49, Nicholls 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lamar vs Nicholls: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lamar | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 24.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39 | 5.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.7 | 164.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.1 | 179.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.0 | 218.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.9 | 178.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 1.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 1.42 |
| Stat | Lamar | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 38.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 11.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.08 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 3.61 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 64.0 |
| Stat | Lamar | Nicholls |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 37.8% |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 30.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 36.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 48.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 45.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.7% | 58.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lamar schedule · Nicholls schedule · all Week 4 projections
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