Matchup analysis
Our model projects McNeese 34, Nicholls 16 at Navarre Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: McNeese wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.2 points and 50 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Nicholls is 3-5 against the 42nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 16.1 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-23.4 per game). McNeese is 3-5 against the 23rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-6.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nicholls by 5 and McNeese by 40 about 80% of the time.
McNeese gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour McNeese by about 15.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Nicholls vs McNeese: stat comparison
| Stat | Nicholls | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.1 | 23.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.5 | 29.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 6.20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.57 | 6.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0 | 174.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.3 | 214.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.1 | 205.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.6 | 263.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Nicholls | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 37.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.7% | 42.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 14.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.06 | 2.81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.96 | 3.44 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 18 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9 | 62.8 |
| Stat | Nicholls | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27 | +0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.4% | 37.7% |
| Passing success rate | 30.7% | 33.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.6% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 31.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.3% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5% | 37.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 38.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.1% | 48.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.2% | 64.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nicholls schedule · McNeese schedule · all Week 9 projections
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