2026 schedule
McNeese Cowboys
2026 season so far
McNeese is 3-5 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-6.8 per game).
McNeese plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Nicholls in Week 9. We project McNeese 34, Nicholls 16 — McNeese wins 87% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
1-0 · SOS #117
Loss 27-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 7.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
SFA -12.5
Total 49.5
Final Stephen F. Austin by 11. McNeese beat the spread. 65 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (open Stephen F. Austin -13.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -453 / +328 · McNeese 22% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +9 pct pts (McNeese view)
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium - vs
Texas Wesleyan Rams
No record · SOS #108
Win 52-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
McNeese by 7.3
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
Final McNeese by 52. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium - vs
Tarleton State Texans
3-0 · SOS #96
Loss 24-27
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 9.6
Total 54.6
DraftKings
TAR -19.5
Total 56.5
Final Tarleton State by 3. McNeese beat the spread. 51 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -19.5 (open Tarleton State -20.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -1260 / +690 · McNeese 12% no-vig · model vs market +9.9 pts, +14 pct pts (McNeese view)
ESPN+ Navarre Stadium - at
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
2-2 · SOS #85
Loss 10-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 4.8
Total 55.2
DraftKings
RGV -5.5
Total 52.5
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 17. UT Rio Grande Valley beat the spread. 37 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Rio Grande Valley -5.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +162 / -204 · UT Rio Grande Valley 64% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -1 pct pts (UT Rio Grande Valley view)
ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium - vs
East Texas A&M Lions
1-4 · SOS #58
Win 27-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
McNeese by 12.1
Total 52.1
DraftKings
MCN -6.5
Total 51.5
Final McNeese by 3. East Texas A&M beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: McNeese -6.5 (open McNeese -2.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -222 · McNeese 65% no-vig · model vs market +5.6 pts, +13 pct pts (McNeese view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLCH)ESPN+ Navarre StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
#11 LSU Tigers
4-1 · SOS #18
Loss 14-63
Week 5
Our number· pregame
LSU by 36.2
Total 48
DraftKings
LSU -53.5
Total 62.5
Final LSU by 49. McNeese beat the spread. 77 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -53.25 · O/U 62 (open 61.25) · model vs market -17.0 pts (LSU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 7 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBTR)SEC Network Tiger Stadium (LA)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Northwestern State Demons
0-7 · SOS #107
Win 24-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
McNeese by 24.5
Total 59.1
DraftKings
MCN -21
Total 60.5
Final McNeese by 3. Northwestern State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: McNeese -21 · O/U 60.5 (open 54.5) · ML -3900 / +1180 · Northwestern State 7% no-vig · model vs market -3.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Northwestern State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAEX)ESPN+ Turpin StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Incarnate Word Cardinals
4-4 · SOS #34
Loss 6-38
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Incarnate Word by 11
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Incarnate Word by 32. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 79°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAT)ESPN+ Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Nicholls Colonels
3-5 · SOS #72
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 34-16 · 87%
Our number
McNeese by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 82°F, Wind 10 mph SE, 47% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 8:35 AM EDTESPN+ Navarre StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Houston Christian Huskies
4-4 · SOS #105
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-23 · 59%
Our number
McNeese by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Husky Stadium (TX)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - at
SE Louisiana Lions
4-4 · SOS #53
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 23-29 · 35%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
Lamar Cardinals
6-2 · SOS #104
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 22-27 · 38%
Our number
Lamar by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Navarre StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Times shown in your local time
McNeese Cowboys stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-23.2
Adj. offense
13.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.20 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.52 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 174.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 214.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 205.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 263.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.08 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.81 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.44 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.10 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.11 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 48.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 64.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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