Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Incarnate Word 33.1, McNeese 22.1 at Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Incarnate Word wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 55.1 combined points.
McNeese is 3-4, scoring 25.4 and allowing 28.6 points per game (-3.2 per game). Incarnate Word is 3-4, scoring 35.1 and allowing 31.4 points per game (+3.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between McNeese by 12 and Incarnate Word by 34 about 80% of the time.
Incarnate Word gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Incarnate Word by about 8.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: McNeese 6, Incarnate Word 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21 points and the total by 11.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | McNeese 22.1, Incarnate Word 33.1 | Incarnate Word 76%right winner | 21.0 | 11.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: McNeese 6, Incarnate Word 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
McNeese vs Incarnate Word: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | McNeese | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5 | 25.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.10 | 5.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01 | 5.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 213.5 | 158.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.0 | 239.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 205.9 | 116.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.1 | 243.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.55 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| Stat | McNeese | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 39.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 13.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58 | 3.62 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.2 | 75.6 |
| Stat | McNeese | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 39.9% | 40.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.1% | 18.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6% | 29.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.2% | 41.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.8% | 51.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: McNeese schedule · Incarnate Word schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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