Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 42.1, McNeese 5.9 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: LSU wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 36.2 points and 48 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
McNeese is 2-3, scoring 28 and allowing 23.2 points per game (+4.8 per game). LSU (No. 11) is 3-1, scoring 38.8 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+23.3 per game).
McNeese plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why LSU's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between LSU by 14 and LSU by 59 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour LSU by about 34.1. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: McNeese 14, LSU 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.8 points and the total by 29.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (McNeese / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -53.25 | 61.25 → 62 | — / — |
| Bovada | LSU -53 | 62 → 61.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | LSU -53.5 | 60.5 → 62.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -36 | 48.0 | 99% |
| Market consensus | LSU -53.5 | 62.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | LSU -51 | 61.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model LSU -36.2 · market LSU -53.25 · difference -17.0 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 48.0 · market 62 · difference -14.0
Model margin is 17.0 pts more toward McNeese than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | McNeese 5.9, LSU 42.1 | LSU 99%right winner | 12.8 | 29.0 |
| New formula | McNeese 5.4, LSU 43.3 | LSU 99%right winner | 11.0 | 28.3 |
Final: McNeese 14, LSU 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
McNeese vs LSU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | McNeese | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 38.8#28 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2 | 15.5#27 |
| Yards per play | 6.70 | 6.79#38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.30 | 4.22#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.4 | 208.3#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 240.6 | 324.8#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.4 | 80.5#5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.0 | 166.3#32 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.75#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20 | 1.75#9 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80 | 4.25#2 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20 | 1.75#73 |
| Stat | McNeese | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.07#88 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.29#1 |
| Success rate | 38.7% | 45.1%#54 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 28.2%#1 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 17.6%#7 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 9.9%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 21.5%#1 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 14.8%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.79 | 4.32#58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.49 | 4.58#119 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 35#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 26#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4 | 78.5#3 |
| Stat | McNeese | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.10#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.03#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.25#1 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.32#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7% | 43.4%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 47.0%#43 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 15.4%#57 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7% | 38.4%#23 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2% | 23.3%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.6% | 55.7%#7 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2% | 35.1%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.7% | 60.9%#86 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 24.5% | 85.7%#130 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: McNeese schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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