Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 32.1, McNeese 22.5 at Navarre Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Tarleton State wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.6 points and 54.5 combined points.
Tarleton State is 2-0, scoring 34.5 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+13 per game). McNeese is 1-1, scoring 39.5 and allowing 19 points per game (+20.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 32 and McNeese by 13 about 80% of the time.
McNeese gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tarleton State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tarleton State 27, McNeese 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.6 points and the total by 3.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tarleton State / McNeese) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tarleton State -20.5 → Tarleton State -19.5 | 56.5 | -1260 / +690 |
| DraftKings | Tarleton State -20.5 → Tarleton State -19.5 | 56.5 | -1260 / +690 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | McNeese win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tarleton State -9.5 | 54.5 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Tarleton State -19.5 | 56.5 | 12% |
| Blended projection | Tarleton State -18 | 56.7 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- McNeese win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) 12% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Tarleton State -9.6 · market Tarleton State -19.5 · difference +9.9 pts (McNeese view)
- Total
- model 54.5 · market 56.5 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 9.9 pts more toward McNeese than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tarleton State 32.1, McNeese 22.5 | Tarleton State 74%right winner | 6.6 | 3.5 |
| New formula | Tarleton State 32.5, McNeese 23.8 | Tarleton State 71%right winner | 5.7 | 5.3 |
Final: Tarleton State 27, McNeese 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tarleton State vs McNeese: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tarleton State | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 23.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.85 | 6.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 6.01 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.4 | 213.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.2 | 196.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7 | 205.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.1 | 170.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.21 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | 0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 2.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.55 | 3.58 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 67.2 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 14.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 40.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 42.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.4% | 56.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.8% | 51.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tarleton State schedule · McNeese schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.