Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected McNeese 29.3, Texas Wesleyan 22 at Navarre Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: McNeese wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 51.2 combined points.
Texas Wesleyan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. McNeese is 0-1, scoring 27 and allowing 38 points per game (-11 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Wesleyan by 15 and McNeese by 30 about 80% of the time.
McNeese gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour McNeese by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Texas Wesleyan 0, McNeese 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 44.7 points and the total by 0.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Wesleyan 22.0, McNeese 29.3 | McNeese 68%right winner | 44.7 | 0.8 |
| New formula | Texas Wesleyan 19.4, McNeese 38.8 | McNeese 87%right winner | 32.5 | 6.2 |
Final: Texas Wesleyan 0, McNeese 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Wesleyan vs McNeese: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Wesleyan | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.0 | 23.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 61.0 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.99 | 6.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.32 | 6.01 |
| Rushing yards per game | 39.0 | 213.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 340.0 | 196.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 291.0 | 205.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 316.0 | 170.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 5.00 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Texas Wesleyan | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.67 | 0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.47 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 27.8% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 62.9% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 22.9% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 5.7% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 22.2% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.58 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.0 | 67.2 |
| Stat | Texas Wesleyan | McNeese |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.99 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.46 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.28 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.61 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 21.4% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 31.8% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 35.3% | 14.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.0% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 50.0% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 40.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.3% | 42.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 56.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 51.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Wesleyan schedule · McNeese schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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