Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston Christian 34.2, Nicholls 23 at Husky Stadium (TX) in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Houston Christian wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 57.1 combined points.
Nicholls is 2-3, scoring 19.2 and allowing 43.4 points per game (-24.2 per game). Houston Christian is 2-3, scoring 32.4 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nicholls by 11 and Houston Christian by 34 about 80% of the time.
Houston Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston Christian by about 9.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Nicholls 2, Houston Christian 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.8 points and the total by 39.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nicholls / Houston Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston Christian -1.5 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +101 / -125 |
| DraftKings | Houston Christian -1.5 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +101 / -125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Houston Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston Christian -11 | 57.1 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Houston Christian -1.5 | 53.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Houston Christian -3 | 54.2 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Houston Christian win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model Houston Christian -11.2 · market Houston Christian -1.5 · difference +9.7 pts (Houston Christian view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 53.5 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 9.7 pts more toward Houston Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nicholls 23.0, Houston Christian 34.2 | Houston Christian 77%right winner | 2.8 | 39.1 |
| New formula | Nicholls 22.8, Houston Christian 34.1 | Houston Christian 77%right winner | 2.8 | 38.9 |
Final: Nicholls 2, Houston Christian 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nicholls vs Houston Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Nicholls | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 30.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 4.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 5.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.8 | 164.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.3 | 131.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 218.6 | 196.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.3 | 185.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.42 | 3.45 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 34.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 8.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 10.3% |
| Havoc rate | 8.7% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.08 | 2.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 3.86 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 29.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 18.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 24.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 31.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.6% | 34.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 58.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nicholls schedule · Houston Christian schedule · all Week 5 projections
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