Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sam Houston 43.9, Nicholls 10.3 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Sam Houston wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.6 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Nicholls is 2-1, scoring 26 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-10.3 per game). Sam Houston is 0-2, scoring 19 and allowing 23.5 points per game (-4.5 per game).
Nicholls plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Sam Houston's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sam Houston by 11 and Sam Houston by 56 about 80% of the time.
Sam Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Sam Houston by about 31.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Nicholls 0, Sam Houston 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.4 points and the total by 4.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nicholls / Sam Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Sam Houston -17.5 → Sam Houston -21 | 49.25 → 51 | +625 / -1000 |
| DraftKings | Sam Houston -17.5 → Sam Houston -21 | 49.5 → 50.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Sam Houston -17.5 → Sam Houston -21 | 49 → 51.5 | +625 / -1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sam Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sam Houston -33.5 | 54.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Sam Houston -21 | 51.0 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Sam Houston -23 | 51.9 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sam Houston win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Sam Houston -33.6 · market Sam Houston -21 · difference +12.6 pts (Sam Houston view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 51 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 12.6 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nicholls 10.3, Sam Houston 43.9 | Sam Houston 99%right winner | 25.4 | 4.9 |
| New formula | Nicholls 17.1, Sam Houston 35.2 | Sam Houston 87%right winner | 40.9 | 6.7 |
Final: Nicholls 0, Sam Houston 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nicholls vs Sam Houston: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nicholls | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0 | 19.0#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3 | 23.5#84 |
| Yards per play | 5.01 | 5.75#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 5.13#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.3 | 82.5#137 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.3 | 302.5#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.0 | 232.0#132 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.7 | 124.5#15 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.50#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 0.00#135 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 4.00#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 4.00#136 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.05#120 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | -0.00#57 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 45.3%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 32.9%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 9.2%#122 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 12.3%#93 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 20.6%#7 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 17.7%#126 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.18 | 3.88#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94 | 3.14#26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 24 | own 21#138 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | own 30#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 67.0#65 |
| Stat | Nicholls | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.20#133 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21 | +0.03#90 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.20#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.23#12 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.2% | 46.7%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3% | 44.9%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 30.1% | 24.1%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.3% | 33.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 25.4%#39 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 39.3%#84 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3% | 31.3%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 66.4%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0% | 50.6%#50 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nicholls schedule · Sam Houston schedule · all Week 3 projections
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