Matchup analysis
Our model projects Houston Christian 36, Northwestern State 21 at Turpin Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Houston Christian wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 56.9 combined points.
Houston Christian is 4-4 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.9 and allowing 26.6 points per game (+2.3 per game). Northwestern State is 0-8 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-24.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston Christian by 37 and Northwestern State by 8 about 80% of the time.
Northwestern State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston Christian is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Houston Christian vs Northwestern State: stat comparison
| Stat | Houston Christian | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.9 | 20.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 44.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.47 | 5.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 7.03 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 122.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.3 | 231.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 221.1 | 222.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.9 | 218.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 36.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 16.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 3.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.25 | 4.82 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0 | 69.8 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Northwestern State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.7% | 37.0% |
| Passing success rate | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 35.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.9% | 32.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.0% | 49.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0% | 69.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · Northwestern State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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