Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stephen F. Austin 55, Northwestern State 4 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 50.9 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Northwestern State is 0-8 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-24.8 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 8-0 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 14.4 points per game (+27 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stephen F. Austin by 28 and Stephen F. Austin by 73 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 48.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northwestern State vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
| Stat | Northwestern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 41.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.8 | 14.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 7.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.03 | 5.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.1 | 231.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.4 | 250.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.3 | 119.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 232.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88 | 3.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 44.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 36.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 18.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 12.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.82 | 3.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.0% | 47.6% |
| Passing success rate | 37.3% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 20.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.5% | 46.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.6% | 28.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.4% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 53.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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