Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Weber State 40.9, Northwestern State 29.2 at Stewart Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Weber State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.7 points and 70 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Northwestern State is 0-3, scoring 19 and allowing 53.3 points per game (-34.3 per game). Weber State is 1-2, scoring 31 and allowing 42.7 points per game (-11.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern State by 11 and Weber State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Weber State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Weber State by about 9.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northwestern State 20, Weber State 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.3 points and the total by 1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northwestern State / Weber State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Weber State -34.5 → Weber State -35.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Weber State -34.5 → Weber State -35.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Weber State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Weber State -11.5 | 70.0 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Weber State -35.5 | 56.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Weber State -32 | 57.6 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Weber State win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Weber State -11.7 · market Weber State -35.5 · difference -23.8 pts (Weber State view)
- Total
- model 70.0 · market 56.5 · difference +13.5
Model margin is 23.8 pts more toward Northwestern State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern State 29.2, Weber State 40.9 | Weber State 78%right winner | 17.3 | 1.0 |
| New formula | Northwestern State 19.7, Weber State 46.1 | Weber State 96%right winner | 2.6 | 3.2 |
Final: Northwestern State 20, Weber State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northwestern State vs Weber State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northwestern State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.6 | 38.3 |
| Yards per play | 4.40 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.27 | 6.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.6 | 159.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 118.6 | 182.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 254.6 | 201.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.6 | 233.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 1.17 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.6% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 9.7% | 14.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.96 | 1.81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 2.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.3 | 63.7 |
| Stat | Northwestern State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 28.4% | 35.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 23.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2% | 25.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.8% | 38.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5% | 35.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2% | 27.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 36.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northwestern State schedule · Weber State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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