Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lamar 25.7, Abilene Christian 25.4 at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Lamar wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 51 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Abilene Christian has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Lamar has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Abilene Christian by 22 and Lamar by 23 about 80% of the time.
Lamar gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Abilene Christian would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Abilene Christian 14, Lamar 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.7 points and the total by 16.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Abilene Christian / Lamar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -7.5 | 49.5 | -303 / +232 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -7.5 | 49.5 | -303 / +232 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lamar win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lamar -0.5 | 51.0 | 51% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -7.5 | 49.5 | 29% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -6.5 | 50.4 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lamar win probability
- model 51% · market (no-vig) 29% · difference +22 pts
- Margin
- model Lamar -0.3 · market Abilene Christian -7.5 · difference +7.8 pts (Lamar view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 49.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 7.8 pts more toward Lamar than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Abilene Christian 25.4, Lamar 25.7 | Lamar 51%right winner | 6.7 | 16.0 |
| New formula | Abilene Christian 27.7, Lamar 26.0 | Abilene Christian 54%wrong winner | 8.7 | 18.7 |
Final: Abilene Christian 14, Lamar 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Abilene Christian vs Lamar: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.6 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 23.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.02 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.7 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.8 | 160.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.9 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.1 | 192.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.07 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 45.4% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 3.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 60.5 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.7% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0% | 52.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · Lamar schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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