Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lamar 32.4, Houston Christian 19.2 at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Lamar wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 51.6 combined points.
Houston Christian is 4-3, scoring 31.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+6.2 per game). Lamar is 5-2, scoring 30.1 and allowing 24.3 points per game (+5.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston Christian by 9 and Lamar by 36 about 80% of the time.
Lamar gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lamar by about 11.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Houston Christian 10, Lamar 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.8 points and the total by 6.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston Christian 19.2, Lamar 32.4 | Lamar 81%right winner | 11.8 | 6.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Houston Christian 10, Lamar 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston Christian vs Lamar: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Houston Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 23.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.38 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 131.0 | 160.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6 | 192.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 34.7% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.37 | 3.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 60.5 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 29.5% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 52.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · Lamar schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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