Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Incarnate Word 26.3, Lamar 26 at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Incarnate Word wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Incarnate Word is 2-3, scoring 34 and allowing 33.2 points per game (+0.8 per game). Lamar is 4-1, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.2 points per game (+8.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 23 and Lamar by 22 about 80% of the time.
Lamar gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Incarnate Word is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Incarnate Word 35, Lamar 38. Lamar won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Incarnate Word / Lamar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lamar -6.5 → Lamar -7 | 49.5 | +209 / -269 |
| DraftKings | Lamar -6.5 → Lamar -7 | 49.5 | +209 / -269 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lamar win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Incarnate Word -0.5 | 52.2 | 49% |
| Market consensus | Lamar -7 | 49.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | Lamar -6 | 50.5 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lamar win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference -20 pts
- Margin
- model Incarnate Word -0.3 · market Lamar -7 · difference -7.3 pts (Lamar view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 49.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 7.3 pts more toward Incarnate Word than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Incarnate Word 26.3, Lamar 26.0 | Incarnate Word 51%wrong winner | 3.3 | 20.8 |
| New formula | Incarnate Word 26.4, Lamar 25.9 | Incarnate Word 51%wrong winner | 3.5 | 20.7 |
Final: Incarnate Word 35, Lamar 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Incarnate Word vs Lamar: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 22.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 23.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.27 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.9 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6 | 160.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.5 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.3 | 192.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.7% | 13.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 60.5 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Lamar |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 40.1% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.4% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 52.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Incarnate Word schedule · Lamar schedule · all Week 6 projections
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