Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 37.4, Lamar 12.8 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Louisiana wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.6 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Lamar is 1-0, scoring 21 and allowing 14 points per game (+7 per game). Louisiana has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Lamar plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Louisiana's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 2 and Louisiana by 47 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana by about 22.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lamar 7, Louisiana 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.4 points and the total by 5.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lamar / Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -19.25 → Louisiana -20.25 | 48.5 | +750 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -18.5 → Louisiana -20.5 | 48.5 | +750 / -1200 |
| Bovada | Louisiana -20 | 48.5 | +750 / -1400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -24.5 | 50.1 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -20.5 | 48.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -21 | 49.5 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -24.6 · market Louisiana -20.25 · difference +4.4 pts (Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 48.5 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Louisiana than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lamar 12.8, Louisiana 37.4 | Louisiana 95%right winner | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| New formula | Lamar 14.2, Louisiana 36.2 | Louisiana 90%right winner | 9.0 | 5.4 |
Final: Lamar 7, Louisiana 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lamar vs Louisiana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lamar | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 26.0#80 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 29.2#96 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 5.51#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39 | 6.19#107 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.7 | 189.0#38 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.1 | 160.5#120 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.0 | 191.2#110 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.9 | 217.5#67 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.08#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.08#66 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 1.62#99 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 1.69#60 |
| Stat | Lamar | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.02#98 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.05#93 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 40.2%#101 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 44.6%#108 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 11.9%#84 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 11.8%#53 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0% | 12.0%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 12.5%#86 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.68#99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 3.40#19 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 29#95 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#108 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 63.5#104 |
| Stat | Lamar | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.08#33 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.14#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.06#105 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.04#83 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 42.3%#87 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 34.0%#130 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 19.6%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 26.5%#114 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 29.0%#64 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 41.2%#67 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 45.2%#117 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 52.9%#109 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.7% | 55.6%#38 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lamar schedule · Louisiana schedule · all Week 1 projections
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